Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Apres GM, Le Deluge.

OK, so the Sun King never uttered those exact words. But the sentiment is similar. In a society dominated by the automobile and the industry that made it what it is today, a world without GM may indeed be as different as France without Louis in the 18th century.

We should begin to think of a post-GM-and-Chrysler-as-we-know-them world. Things look pretty dire for them as they near the auto bailout hearings in Congress. This scribbler believes in two possible outcomes:

(1) The Obama administration originally talked of a $1 trillion package to stimulate the economy. This figure has conveniently been whittled away to $750 billion. Chrysler, GM and possibly Ford could be saved by say, a $250 billion package. You do the math. Maybe Mr. Obama's administration is going to walk the talk and save the jobs (read UAW) that helped elect him.
Or
(2) Maybe not. The possibility of ending decades of mismanagement, and products built for consumers with no eyes, one leg and an income of $55,000 in outer Mongolia, instead of the US middle class, might be too tempting for the free market thinkers in Congress. These politicians are not limited to the Republican party, either. There could be a groundswell of support for the idea of restructuring the auto industry by allowing at least two automakers slide into bankruptcy.

And what of Ford? The automotive press has been full of praise for Ford's future plans. The 2010 Taurus (not yet in dealerships) is getting rave reviews. The European Focus, due here sometime in late 2010, is getting rave reviews in Europe,and, if oil prices spike in a couple of years, could be a big hit here (and even if they don't, young buyers will flock to the product). And then there are a slew of hybrids coming out of Ford, starting now with the launch of the new 2010 Fusion Hybrid, rumored to be able to get 40 MPG in the city. If I were a betting man, I would buy Ford shares now. I might even fund them by bailing out of my GM and Chrysler shares.

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